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NYY 2 / SDP 3
NYYNew York Yankees50%
SDPSan Diego Padres50%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterMax FriedConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
NYY50%ML -112
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
SDP50%ML -106

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.6 pts

Model has SDP at 50.2% vs market 45.7%, backing the worse team on both record (73-67 vs 80-60) and offense (3.8 RPG, .547 OPS vs 5.7, .692). Fried's 2.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP clearly outclass Buehler's 4.66/1.36. Take NYY. Petco at 0.96 PF plus Fried argues under 7.5, well below the model's 8.63.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.4
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Max FriedNYY starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +134 fanduel / U -153 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 draftkings / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-112 / -106NYY / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-177)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -121
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total