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NYY 5 / SDP 1
NYYNew York Yankees50%
SDPSan Diego Padres50%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterCarlos RodónConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
SDPHome starterRobbie RayConfirmed
NYY50%ML +109
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
SDP50%ML -129

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.4 pts

Market is essentially pick'em (home -108/away +100) despite NYY's 80-61 record, 5.2 RPG and .692 OPS versus San Diego's 3.3 RPG and .547 OPS. Taking the better offense at even money is fair value even with Ray's 3.14 ERA at Petco. Both starters under 3.50 ERA in a 0.96 park argues under the 7.5; the model's 8.60 total looks structurally high.

ace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Carlos RodónNYY starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -142 fanduel / U +115 betrivers4 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Robbie RaySDP starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +128 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+109 / -129NYY / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total