MLB / mlb / live
MIN 1 / SDP 8MINMinnesota Twins44%
SDPSan Diego Padres56%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterBailey OberConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
MIN44%ML +130
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
SDP56%ML -153
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Bailey OberMIN starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +115 fanatics / U -125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +121 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+130 / -153MIN / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+134)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -122 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total