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PIT 3 / SDP 2
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
SDPSan Diego Padres59%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
PITAway starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline59%Model 20260824_auto
SDPHome starterRobbie RayConfirmed
PIT41%ML +100
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
SDP59%ML -118

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.2 pts

Model has SDP at 59.4% versus a pick'em market (implied 50.2%) — a 9-point gap I can't justify given San Diego's .547 OPS and 4.6 RPG against Pittsburgh's .710 and 4.9. Ashcraft's 1.08 WHIP and 9.58 K/9 profile better than Ray's 1.31 WHIP. Slight home lean only. Petco's 0.96 park factor plus two sub-3.70 ERA starters argues under 7.5, well below the model's 8.68.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total8.6
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +119 draftkings / U -139 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%under
O 3.570%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Robbie RaySDP starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 betrivers / U +105 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+100 / -118PIT / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -1 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total