MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / SDP 7MINMinnesota Twins44%
SDPSan Diego Padres56%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterDean KremerConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
SDPHome starterCasey MizeConfirmed
MIN44%ML +120
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
SDP56%ML -141
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Dean KremerMIN starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 draftkings / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Casey MizeSDP starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -109 betrivers / U -102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+120 / -141MIN / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total