MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / SDP 6MINMinnesota Twins46%
SDPSan Diego Padres54%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterConnor PrielippConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
SDPHome starterRandy VásquezConfirmed
MIN46%ML +104
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SDP54%ML -120
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -148 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Randy VásquezSDP starter / home
Projected K2.8Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +129 draftkings / U -156 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.552%over
O 3.531%under
O 4.516%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+104 / -120MIN / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+163)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line24 total