sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIL 2 / SDP 3
MILMilwaukee Brewers53%
SDPSan Diego Padres47%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
SDPHome starterCasey MizeConfirmed
MIL53%ML -123
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SDP47%ML +105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.3 pts

Model total of 8.98 vs market 7.0 is a structural miss: Petco at 0.96 PF with Mize (3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) and Henderson (2.70 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 0.90 WHIP) argues under, not over. MIL's 74-44 record supports a small comparison over market's 48% home implied, but the team stat lines look inconsistent, so only a lean.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 betmgm / U -120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.554%over
O 5.538%over
O 6.524%over
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Casey MizeSDP starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 betrivers / U +125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-123 / +105MIL / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-169)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total