MLB / mlb / live
SFG 5 / SDP 6SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
SDPSan Diego Padres55%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterTyler MahleConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
SFG45%ML +129
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SDP55%ML -152
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tyler MahleSFG starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betrivers / U -159 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -152 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+129 / -152SFG / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total