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SFG 4 / SDP 5
SFGSan Francisco Giants45%
SDPSan Diego Padres55%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLanden RouppConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
SDPHome starterKyle HartConfirmed
SFG45%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
SDP55%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.5 pts

Market has SDP at 57.7% implied, model barely leans SFG at 50.8%. The 7pp gap triggers the disagreement flag but market is priced correctly: King's 3.38 ERA at pitcher-friendly Petco vs Roupp's 4.12 is a real comparison. Model's 8.97 total vs market 8.0 in a 0.96 park suggests structural miss on venue impact. Lean SDP, under on total.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.7
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -137 betrivers / U +116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Kyle HartSDP starter / home
Projected K2.0Actual 2 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +146 betonlineag / U -192 betonlineag1 book at this line
Model over 2.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.558%over
O 2.532%under
O 3.514%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -125SFG / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total