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MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
SFGSan Francisco Giants51%
SDPSan Diego Padres49%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SFGAway starterLanden RouppProbable
Model pickSFG moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingProbable
SFG51%ML +129
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability42%Selected moneyline pick
SDP49%ML -150

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.7 pts

Market has SDP at 57.7% implied, model barely leans SFG at 50.8%. The 7pp gap triggers the disagreement flag but market is priced correctly: King's 3.38 ERA at pitcher-friendly Petco vs Roupp's 4.12 is a real comparison. Model's 8.97 total vs market 8.0 in a 0.96 park suggests structural miss on venue impact. Lean SDP, under on total.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Landen RouppSFG starter / away
Projected K4.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.7
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.568%
O 4.550%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+129 / -150SFG / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total