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COL 1 / SDP 3
COLColorado Rockies51%
SDPSan Diego Padres49%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterGabriel HughesConfirmed
Model pickCOL moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
SDPHome starterKyle HartConfirmed
COL51%ML +155
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
SDP49%ML -185

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.0 pts

Model picks COL at 55.2% but market has SDP at 57.8%; home pitcher TBD is a major blind spot. COL's 42-66 record and 4.8 RPG suggest offense-defense mismatch flag is warranted. Petco's 0.96 park factor plus Hughes' small 19.3 IP sample argue under the model's 10.06 total vs market 8.0. Lean SDP on market信息 but low confidence given pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total10.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gabriel HughesCOL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -125 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Kyle HartSDP starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%over
O 2.560%over
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -185COL / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total