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MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
COLColorado Rockies55%
SDPSan Diego Padres45%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
COLAway starterStarter TBD
Model pickCOL moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
SDPHome starterStarter TBD
COL55%ML +135
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
SDP45%ML -160

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap14.3 pts

Model picks COL at 55.2% but market has SDP at 57.8%; home pitcher TBD is a major blind spot. COL's 42-66 record and 4.8 RPG suggest offense-defense mismatch flag is warranted. Petco's 0.96 park factor plus Hughes' small 19.3 IP sample argue under the model's 10.06 total vs market 8.0. Lean SDP on market信息 but low confidence given pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total10.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Gabriel HughesCOL starter / away
Projected K4.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.563%
O 4.545%
O 5.529%
O 6.516%
O 7.59%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+135 / -160COL / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -102 / U -118
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total