MLB / mlb / live
scheduledCOLColorado Rockies51%
SDPSan Diego Padres49%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterMichael LorenzenProbable
Model pickCOL moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingProbable
COL51%ML +155
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability37%Selected moneyline pick
SDP49%ML -189
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total10.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K3.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.572%
O 3.552%
O 4.533%
O 5.519%
O 6.510%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.584%
O 3.569%
O 4.551%
O 5.534%
O 6.521%
O 7.512%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+155 / -189COL / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total