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scheduled
TORToronto Blue Jays39%
SDPSan Diego Padres61%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterTrey YesavageProbable
Model pickSDP moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerProbable
TOR39%ML -104
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
SDP61%ML -115

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap9.5 pts

Model likes SDP at 60.7% but market is dead even (50.7% implied). The 10-point gap triggers market_disagreement_large. Top SHAP features are all TOR offense stats pushing model toward SDP, but TOR's .786 OPS vs SDP's .547 OPS suggests TOR should be favored. Model appears confused by short-window noise. Market knows more here.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K5.2
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.588%
O 3.574%
O 4.558%
O 5.541%
O 6.527%
O 7.516%
O 8.59%
O 9.55%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.3
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.580%
O 3.562%
O 4.544%
O 5.527%
O 6.516%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-104 / -115TOR / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.0 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -113
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total