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TOR 7 / SDP 8
TORToronto Blue Jays39%
SDPSan Diego Padres61%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterTrey YesavageConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
TOR39%ML -106
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
SDP61%ML -112

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.0 pts

Model likes SDP at 60.7% but market is dead even (50.7% implied). The 10-point gap triggers market_disagreement_large. Top SHAP features are all TOR offense stats pushing model toward SDP, but TOR's .786 OPS vs SDP's .547 OPS suggests TOR should be favored. Model appears confused by short-window noise. Market knows more here.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.0
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Trey YesavageTOR starter / away
Projected K5.2Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -133 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.588%under
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 fanatics / U +106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.580%under
O 3.562%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-106 / -112TOR / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-157)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total