Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

TOR 5 / SDP 3
TORToronto Blue Jays44%
SDPSan Diego Padres56%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterShane BieberConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
SDPHome starterJP SearsConfirmed
TOR44%ML +102
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
SDP56%ML -120

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K4.3
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.579%
O 3.561%
O 4.542%
O 5.526%
O 6.515%
O 7.58%
O 8.54%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

JP SearsSDP starter / home
Projected K4.2
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%
O 2.578%
O 3.560%
O 4.541%
O 5.525%
O 6.514%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+102 / -120TOR / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -108
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total