MLB / mlb / live
ARI 4 / SDP 10ARIArizona Diamondbacks50%
SDPSan Diego Padres50%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterJose CabreraConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingConfirmed
ARI50%ML +120
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
SDP50%ML -144
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Jose CabreraARI starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 betrivers / U -115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+120 / -144ARI / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total