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LAD 4 / SDP 2
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
SDPSan Diego Padres42%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterEmmet SheehanConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
SDPHome starterMichael KingConfirmed
LAD58%ML -138
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
SDP42%ML +116

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.7 pts

Model has LAD at 58%, market at 55% — mild convergence. The 9.85 total is nearly 2 runs above market's 8.0 at Petco (PF 0.962), a known pitcher park. King's 3.33 ERA in 92 IP is legitimate; Sheehan's 5.32 ERA is exploitable but the model's total feels inflated. Lean LAD on side, under on total given structural park discount.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Emmet SheehanLAD starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -110 fanatics / U -108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 draftkings / U +117 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.564%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-138 / +116LAD / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -106 / U -113
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total