MLB / mlb / live
ARI 8 / SDP 0ARIArizona Diamondbacks44%
SDPSan Diego Padres56%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline56%Model 20260706_auto
SDPHome starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
ARI44%ML +107
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
SDP56%ML -126
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -120 bovada / U +110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.558%over
O 4.539%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +131 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+107 / -126ARI / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+164)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total