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LAD 15 / SDP 3
LADLos Angeles Dodgers58%
SDPSan Diego Padres42%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LADAway starterYoshinobu YamamotoConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
SDPHome starterKyle HartConfirmed
LAD58%ML -210
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability65%Selected moneyline pick
SDP42%ML +170

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap6.4 pts

Model has LAD at 58.3%, market implies 64.3% — a 6-point gap favoring the Dodgers more than model suggests. Yamamoto (2.65 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) vs Vásquez (4.17 ERA, 1.4 WHIP) is a clear pitching comparison. SDP offense at 0.8 RPG and .547 OPS is historically weak. Model total of 9.15 runs vs market 8.0 is a 1.15 run gap; lean over because model sees offensive upside the market may be underpricing.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / away
Projected K5.7Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 betrivers / U -125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%under
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Kyle HartSDP starter / home
Projected K2.8Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.576%over
O 2.552%under
O 3.530%under
O 4.515%under
O 5.57%under
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-210 / +170LAD / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+100)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total