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ATL 2 / SDP 5
ATLAtlanta Braves53%
SDPSan Diego Padres47%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterMartín PérezConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
SDPHome starterJP SearsConfirmed
ATL53%ML -118
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability52%Selected moneyline pick
SDP47%ML -102

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.7 pts

Home pitcher JP Sears has fallback data quality—model is substituting team stats, not his actual performance. ATL has better record (46-32 vs 38-40) and ops (0.789 vs 0.547). Market implies ATL 56%, model 53.4%—convergence on ATL lean. Pérez 2.78 ERA in 68 IP is credible. Total pass due to one-sided pitcher uncertainty.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 betonlineag / U -141 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

JP SearsSDP starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betmgm / U +132 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-118 / -102ATL / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total