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ATL 6 / SDP 7
ATLAtlanta Braves58%
SDPSan Diego Padres42%

at Petco Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterJR RitchieConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
SDPHome starterWandy PeraltaConfirmed
ATL58%ML -110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
SDP42%ML -108

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.0 pts

SDP starter is TBD/fallback with only 37.7 IP sample. ATL has superior offense (.789 OPS vs .547) and better record (46-31 vs 38-39). Market is near pick'em; model's 58% on ATL is reasonable but not actionable given pitcher uncertainty. Petco's sub-.97 park factor dampens totals but model's 9.52 vs market 8.5 gap is concerning without knowing SDP's actual starter.

pitcher data fallback

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
JR RitchieATL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 draftkings / U -149 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%over
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Wandy PeraltaSDP starter / home
Projected K1.6Actual 2 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.546%over
O 2.521%under
O 3.58%under
O 4.52%under
O 5.51%under
O 6.50%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-110 / -108ATL / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total