MLB / mlb / live
CIN 2 / SDP 6CINCincinnati Reds42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterAndrew Abbott
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterWalker Buehler
CIN42%ML +115
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SDP58%ML -136
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts
Model total is 9.04 vs market 7.5 — a 1.54-run gap in a Petco (PF 0.96) extreme pitcher park. Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, not signal. Buehler stats are null despite 10 starts; uncertain data quality. Model moneyline 58% vs market 55% is close but total miss is structural. Take under, pass on side.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+115 / -136CIN / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total