MLB / mlb / live
CIN 5 / SDP 3CINCincinnati Reds47%
SDPSan Diego Padres53%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterLucas Giolito
CIN47%ML -135
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SDP53%ML +114
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.3 pts
Model has SDP 53.4%, market has CIN 54% — essentially a coin flip. Model's 9.2 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap, triggering the far-from-market flag. Petco suppresses runs (PF 0.96) but model leans heavily over. Null pitcher stats make this opaque; lacking ERA/WHIP I can't validate the total call. Defer to market on side, lean over on total given model conviction despite pitcher-friendly park.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-135 / +114CIN / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -6
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total