MLB / mlb / live
CIN 5 / SDP 3CINCincinnati Reds47%
SDPSan Diego Padres53%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase Burns
Model pickSDP moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterLucas Giolito
CIN47%ML -135
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability45%Selected moneyline pick
SDP53%ML +114
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.6 pts
Model has SDP 53.4%, market has CIN 54% — essentially a coin flip. Model's 9.2 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap, triggering the far-from-market flag. Petco suppresses runs (PF 0.96) but model leans heavily over. Null pitcher stats make this opaque; lacking ERA/WHIP I can't validate the total call. Defer to market on side, lean over on total given model conviction despite pitcher-friendly park.
total far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-135 / +114CIN / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -118 / U -6
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total