MLB / mlb / live
NYM 7 / SDP 3NYMNew York Mets42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterHuascar Brazobán
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterRandy Vásquez
NYM42%ML -110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
SDP58%ML -110
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.5 pts
Both pitchers show 0.00 ERA but tiny samples (Vásquez 6.0 IP, Brazobán 2.1 IP). Model favors SDP 57.5% vs market's 50-50, but extreme park (0.962) + ace flag + small IP samples make side unreliable. Total: market 7.5, model 8.88 — lean under given Petco and uncertainty.
ace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-110 / -110NYM / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total