MLB / mlb / live
PHI 3 / SDP 0PHIPhiladelphia Phillies53%
SDPSan Diego Padres47%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPHIAway starterCristopher Sánchez
Model pickPHI moneyline53%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterWalker Buehler
PHI53%ML -143
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
SDP47%ML +120
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.2 pts
Model and market align on PHI slight comparison (53% vs 61% implied). Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is a microscopic sample, not predictive. Buehler's missing rate stats raise data quality concerns despite 'full' tag. Total gap (9.30 model vs 7.0 market) is massive but likely reflects stale pitcher data; can't trust either side without real Buehler numbers.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-143 / +120PHI / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -106 / U -114
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total