MLB / mlb / live
LAD 0 / SDP 1LADLos Angeles Dodgers59%
SDPSan Diego Padres41%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterYoshinobu Yamamoto
Model pickLAD moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterMichael King
LAD59%ML -152
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SDP41%ML +129
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.6 pts
Model has LAD at 58.6%, market at 56.6% — essentially aligned. King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is microscopic sample noise, but Yamamoto's 3.00 ERA over 6.0 IP per start (60 IP total) is legitimate. Petco (0.96 PF) plus ace matchup argues under; model's 9.22 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.7-run gap likely driven by LAD's 5.2 RPG ignoring park context. Side is a coin flip, lean LAD on superior offense.
total far from marketace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-152 / +129LAD / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -116 / U -104
30 books29 ML22 run line21 total