MLB / mlb / live
LAD 5 / SDP 4LADLos Angeles Dodgers46%
SDPSan Diego Padres54%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterEmmet Sheehan
Model pickSDP moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterGriffin Canning
LAD46%ML -159
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
SDP54%ML +133
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap12.4 pts
Model has SDP 53.5% vs market 41.2% — a 12-point disagreement. Sheehan's 10.8 ERA in 3.1 IP is extreme small sample noise; LAD offense at 4.9 RPG/.743 OPS vastly outclasses SDP's 3.3/.547. Canning data is incomplete (no ERA/IP). Market knows more here; lean LAD but low confidence given missing pitcher context.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-159 / +133LAD / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -112
30 books29 ML22 run line21 total