MLB / mlb / live
LAD 5 / SDP 4LADLos Angeles Dodgers46%
SDPSan Diego Padres54%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterEmmet Sheehan
Model pickSDP moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterGriffin Canning
LAD46%ML -159
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
SDP54%ML +133
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time12.4 pts
Model has SDP 53.5% vs market 41.2% — a 12-point disagreement. Sheehan's 10.8 ERA in 3.1 IP is extreme small sample noise; LAD offense at 4.9 RPG/.743 OPS vastly outclasses SDP's 3.3/.547. Canning data is incomplete (no ERA/IP). Market knows more here; lean LAD but low confidence given missing pitcher context.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-159 / +133LAD / SDP moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-124)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -112
30 books29 ML22 run line21 total