MLB / mlb / live
STL 6 / SDP 0STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMichael McGreevy
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterGriffin Canning
STL42%ML +128
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
SDP58%ML -152
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.2 pts
Model and market converge at ~58% SDP, but McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is pure noise over 10 starts. Canning's missing stats prevent proper evaluation. Model projects 9.05 vs market 8.0; the 1+ run gap with no structural explanation (no ace matchup, normal park) suggests lean over, but the thin pitcher data makes a side pick unjustifiable.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+128 / -152STL / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -108
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total