MLB / mlb / live
STL 6 / SDP 0STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterMichael McGreevy
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterGriffin Canning
STL42%ML +128
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
SDP58%ML -152
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts
Model and market converge at ~58% SDP, but McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is pure noise over 10 starts. Canning's missing stats prevent proper evaluation. Model projects 9.05 vs market 8.0; the 1+ run gap with no structural explanation (no ace matchup, normal park) suggests lean over, but the thin pitcher data makes a side pick unjustifiable.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.1
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+128 / -152STL / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -115 / U -108
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total