MLB / mlb / live
CHW 3 / SDP 4CHWChicago White Sox42%
SDPSan Diego Padres58%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterAnthony Kay
Model pickSDP moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterGriffin Canning
CHW42%ML +155
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
SDP58%ML -186
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap4.3 pts
Griffin Canning's data is a fallback (5.0 IP over 10 starts is implausible), making this a structural uncertainty case. Market implies 62.3% SDP vs model's 58.1%; without reliable pitcher stats, I defer to market. Petco's park factor and Kay's full season data (3.86 ERA, 1.5 WHIP) suggest under lean, but the pitcher_data_fallback forces a pass on both moneyline and total.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+155 / -186CHW / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
30 books28 ML24 run line21 total