MLB / mlb / live
CHW 4 / SDP 0CHWChicago White Sox49%
SDPSan Diego Padres51%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean Burke
Model pickSDP moneyline51%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterMichael King
CHW49%ML +160
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability63%Selected moneyline pick
SDP51%ML -196
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap12.7 pts
Market at 63.5% vs model 50.6% is a 13pp gap. King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is absurdly small sample but Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP is equally noisy. Petco suppresses runs. Market knows something model doesn't; lean SDP but don't trust King's profile yet.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+160 / -196CHW / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+112)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -113 / U -114
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total