MLB / mlb / live
CHW 8 / SDP 2CHWChicago White Sox59%
SDPSan Diego Padres41%
at Petco Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterNoah Schultz
Model pickCHW moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
SDPHome starterGermán Márquez
CHW59%ML +125
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
SDP41%ML -150
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time16.4 pts
Model picks CHW at 58.6%, market has 42.3% - large disagreement flag fires. Away pitcher Schultz on fallback data creates structural uncertainty. Model's 9.51 total vs market 8.0 is a 1.5-run miss; Petco's 0.96 PF argues under. CHW's superior .729 OPS vs .547 supports the away pick but confidence must stay lean given pitcher data gap.
pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gaptotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.5
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+125 / -150CHW / SDP moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+141)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -114 / U -105
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total