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scheduled
STLSt. Louis Cardinals50%
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreProbable
Model pickSTL moneyline50%Model 20260921_auto
PITHome starterLake BacharProbable
STL50%ML +118
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability44%Selected moneyline pick
PIT50%ML -139

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.3 pts

Model lands on STL at 50.4% while market implies 55.9% home; the offense_defense_mismatch flag fires and I side with the market. Bachar (3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.4 K/9) clearly outclasses Liberatore (5.36 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) today. Liberatore's baserunner rate plus PNC's 1.055 park factor nudges me slightly over the 7.0 line, though both offenses are modest.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K5.1
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.573%
O 4.556%
O 5.539%
O 6.525%
O 7.515%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K2.0
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.558%
O 2.531%
O 3.514%
O 4.55%
O 5.52%
O 6.50%
O 7.50%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Market odds · pregame

Market consensus+118 / -139STL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total