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STL 5 / PIT 1
STLSt. Louis Cardinals50%
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterMatthew LiberatoreConfirmed
Model pickSTL moneyline50%Model 20260921_auto
PITHome starterLake BacharConfirmed
STL50%ML +115
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
PIT50%ML -138

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.2 pts

Model lands on STL at 50.4% while market implies 55.9% home; the offense_defense_mismatch flag fires and I side with the market. Bachar (3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.4 K/9) clearly outclasses Liberatore (5.36 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) today. Liberatore's baserunner rate plus PNC's 1.055 park factor nudges me slightly over the 7.0 line, though both offenses are modest.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total8.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -123 betonlineag / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K2.0Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.558%over
O 2.532%under
O 3.514%under
O 4.55%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+115 / -138STL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total