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KCR 5 / PIT 8
KCRKansas City Royals54%
PITPittsburgh Pirates46%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
KCRAway starterRandy DobnakConfirmed
Model pickKCR moneyline54%Model 20260914_auto
PITHome starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
KCR54%ML +159
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
PIT46%ML -190

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time17.3 pts

Model takes KCR at 53.9% against a market implying 63.4% home, and it is picking the team with the worse record (67-86) and far worse offense (.518 OPS, 3.2 RPG) while facing Skenes (3.78 ERA, 10.28 K/9). That offense/defense mismatch plus a 9-point market gap argues for PIT. Two weak offenses and Dobnak's 2.73 ERA favor under 8.0 despite PNC's 1.055 park factor.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Randy DobnakKCR starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 bovada / U -117 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.578%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 betonlineag / U -135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+159 / -190KCR / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+114)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -113
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total