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MIL 5 / PIT 1
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterJacob MisiorowskiConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260914_auto
PITHome starterLake BacharConfirmed
MIL47%ML -218
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PIT53%ML +180

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time22.7 pts

Model has PIT at 53% against a market implying 31% — a 22-point gap with no support. MIL is 93-57 with 7.4 RPG and .972 OPS against PIT's 3.2 RPG, and Misiorowski (1.95 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 13.17 K/9) is the far better starter. Taking Milwaukee. Misiorowski against a 3.2 RPG offense argues under 7.5 despite PNC's 1.055 factor.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Jacob MisiorowskiMIL starter / away
Projected K7.4Actual 7 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +115 betmgm / U -141 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.593%over
O 4.584%over
O 5.573%over
O 6.560%over
O 7.546%under
O 8.533%under
O 9.522%under
O 10.514%under
O 11.59%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K3.1Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +120 betonlineag / U -137 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 2.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.581%under
O 2.559%under
O 3.538%under
O 4.521%under
O 5.510%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-218 / +180MIL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -104 / U -116
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total