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LAA 6 / PIT 1
LAALos Angeles Angels47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterYusei KikuchiConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260831_auto
PITHome starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
LAA47%ML +155
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PIT53%ML -186

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.5 pts

Market at 62.9% for PIT looks better calibrated than the model's 53.4%. Ashcraft (3.59 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 9.2 K/9) is the clear comparison over Kikuchi (5.65 ERA, 1.49 WHIP) and LAA is 53-88 with 3.4 RPG. Model's 8.79 total sits well above the 7.5 line with two low-scoring offenses; under is the better side.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.7
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Yusei KikuchiLAA starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -101 draftkings / U -111 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 betmgm / U +124 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.527%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+155 / -186LAA / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+119)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total