MLB / mlb / live
SFG 2 / PIT 5SFGSan Francisco Giants39%
PITPittsburgh Pirates61%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSFGAway starterBlade TidwellConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline61%Model 20260831_auto
PITHome starterLake BacharConfirmed
SFG39%ML +144
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
PIT61%ML -171
Projection Context
Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Blade TidwellSFG starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +115 fanatics / U -128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Lake BacharPIT starter / home
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +132 draftkings / U -167 betonlineag2 books at this line
Model over 2.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.556%over
O 3.535%under
O 4.518%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+144 / -171SFG / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+120)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total