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LAA 0 / PIT 1
LAALos Angeles Angels50%
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
LAAAway starterRyan JohnsonConfirmed
Model pickLAA moneyline50%Model 20260831_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
LAA50%ML +165
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
PIT50%ML -196

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time13.5 pts

Model has LAA at 50.5% while the market implies 63% for Pittsburgh, and it is siding with the team holding both the worse record (53-87 vs 69-72) and the lower RPG (3.7 vs 3.8). That is the classic offense/defense mismatch red flag, so I take the market side. Two weak offenses against a 4.83 and a 5.47 ERA starter still argues under 8.5 given how little either lineup scores.

Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.2
Projected total8.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +100 betmgm / U -120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 draftkings / U -156 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 6.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+165 / -196LAA / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total