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DET 8 / PIT 5
DETDetroit Tigers53%
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
PITHome starterCarmen MlodzinskiConfirmed
DET53%ML -110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PIT47%ML -105

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.1 pts

Near coin flip: market implies 49.3% home, model 52.8% DET, and both starters are mid-rotation (Mlodzinski 3.79 ERA/1.40 WHIP, Valdez 4.26 ERA/1.39 WHIP). Slight nod to Detroit on the better run scoring (5.0 vs 4.7 RPG), though their .582 team OPS is inconsistent with that. Model's 9.44 total sits 1.4 above the 8.0 line; no reason to chase it at PNC, so no total view.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 bovada / U -149 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Carmen MlodzinskiPIT starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -155 betmgm / U +132 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 2.575%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-110 / -105DET / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total