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NYM 11 / PIT 1
NYMNew York Mets52%
PITPittsburgh Pirates48%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
NYM52%ML +124
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
PIT48%ML -145

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.9 pts

Model leans NYM at 52.4% against a market implying 56.6% for PIT, a gap I'd fade. Jones has the better peripherals (1.11 WHIP, 9.96 K/9) versus Manaea's 1.38 WHIP, and PIT is at home. Total: model's 8.80 sits well above the 8.0 line while PIT scores just 3.8 RPG, so I lean under.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 11 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -156 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.523%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.52%over
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+124 / -145NYM / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -114
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total