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BOS 4 / PIT 0
BOSBoston Red Sox47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BOSAway starterSonny GrayConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260810_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
BOS47%ML -121
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PIT53%ML +104

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.0 pts

Model favors PIT despite the worse record (60-64 vs 65-57), worse offense (4.3 RPG/.710 OPS vs 5.4/.736), and the far weaker starter — Jones at 5.03 ERA against Gray's 2.79 over 125.7 IP. Market's 45.9% implied on Pittsburgh looks correct. Model's 9.07 total sits 1.6 runs above the 7.5 line with no obvious justification against Gray.

total far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sonny GrayBOS starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +107 betonlineag / U -110 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -126 draftkings / U +106 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-121 / +104BOS / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total