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ARI 3 / PIT 0
ARIArizona Diamondbacks51%
PITPittsburgh Pirates49%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ARIAway starterEduardo RodriguezConfirmed
Model pickARI moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
ARI51%ML +115
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
PIT49%ML -140

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.1 pts

Market favors PIT at 54.8% implied but model gives ARI slight comparison at 51.3%. Rodriguez's 2.64 ERA over 122.7 IP is legit, Jones at 3.72 in just 46 IP is less proven. ARI's 6.4 RPG offense vs PIT's 4.0 RPG is stark. Model total of 9.26 is 0.76 above market 8.5, likely driven by PIT's recent offensive inputs. Lean ARI on side, over on total.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total10.5
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Eduardo RodriguezARI starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -125 betonlineag / U +120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%under
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -158 fanduel / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+115 / -140ARI / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+147)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total