MLB / mlb / live
scheduledARIArizona Diamondbacks46%
PITPittsburgh Pirates54%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedARIAway starterMerrill KellyProbable
Model pickPIT moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
PITHome starterMitch KellerProbable
ARI46%ML +104
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
PIT54%ML -124
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Merrill KellyARI starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Mitch KellerPIT starter / home
Projected K3.9
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.574%
O 3.554%
O 4.535%
O 5.520%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+104 / -124ARI / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total