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CHC 11 / PIT 0
CHCChicago Cubs45%
PITPittsburgh Pirates55%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CHCAway starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
PITHome starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
CHC45%ML +104
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
PIT55%ML -124

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.4 pts

Model total of 9.12 vs market 7.5 is a 1.6-run gap—the largest structural red flag. PNC Park is neutral (PF 1.06), both pitchers solid (Skenes 3.43 ERA, Imanaga 3.91 ERA in 115+ IP each). Model is systematically over-estimating scoring; market at 7.5 looks right. Moneyline is a coin flip at ~54% both ways.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -105 betmgm / U -116 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.2Actual 11 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -148 fanduel / U +120 betmgm4 books at this line
Model over 6.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.573%over
O 5.558%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%over
O 9.511%over
O 10.56%over
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+104 / -124CHC / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total