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MIL 2 / PIT 3
MILMilwaukee Brewers47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterShane DrohanProbable
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
PITHome starterBubba ChandlerConfirmed
MIL47%ML -141
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PIT53%ML +120

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts

Model likes PIT 52.7% but market has MIL -125 (55.6% implied). MIL is 59-34 vs PIT 47-47; record gap supports market view. Drohan's 2.97 ERA in 63.7 IP is legit vs Chandler's 4.82. PNC Park favors runs (PF 1.055); model total 9.51 vs market 9.0 is reasonable. Lean MIL side, slight over on total.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Shane DrohanMIL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -154 betonlineag / U +128 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -136 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.538%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-141 / +120MIL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-132)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line21 total