MLB / mlb / live
scheduledMILMilwaukee Brewers50%
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon SproatConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
PITHome starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
MIL50%ML -107
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
PIT50%ML -112
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Brandon SproatMIL starter / away
Projected K5.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.586%
O 3.572%
O 4.555%
O 5.538%
O 6.524%
O 7.514%
O 8.57%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K6.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.584%
O 4.571%
O 5.556%
O 6.541%
O 7.528%
O 8.517%
O 9.510%
O 10.56%
O 11.53%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-107 / -112MIL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.3 (-154)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -111
33 books31 ML24 run line22 total