MLB / mlb / live
MIL 6 / PIT 7MILMilwaukee Brewers50%
PITPittsburgh Pirates50%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterBrandon SproatConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline50%Model 20260706_auto
PITHome starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
MIL50%ML -102
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
PIT50%ML -116
Projection Context
Projected margin0.2
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Brandon SproatMIL starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 bovada / U -131 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 betonlineag / U -141 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-102 / -116MIL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total