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ATL 10 / PIT 5
ATLAtlanta Braves47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
ATLAway starterBryce ElderConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
PITHome starterMitch KellerConfirmed
ATL47%ML -110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
PIT53%ML -108

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.9 pts

Model has PIT 52.7% but market implies ATL 52.6% — essentially a coin flip. ATL's .789 OPS vs PIT's .710 OPS is a meaningful comparison the model underweights. Keller's 5.02 ERA in 100 IP is a genuine concern. Market total 9.5 vs model 9.42 is tight; slight lean under given neither offense is elite and no extreme park factor.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.4
Market total10.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryce ElderATL starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 draftkings / U -122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Mitch KellerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -137 draftkings / U +112 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.559%under
O 4.540%under
O 5.525%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-110 / -108ATL / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.0O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total