MLB / mlb / live
ATL 4 / PIT 12ATLAtlanta Braves47%
PITPittsburgh Pirates53%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterHurston WaldrepConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline53%Model 20260706_auto
PITHome starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
ATL47%ML +125
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
PIT53%ML -150
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Hurston WaldrepATL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -108 fanduel / U +100 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%under
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -101 draftkings / U -110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+125 / -150ATL / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+139)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -114
33 books32 ML23 run line23 total