sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CIN 9 / PIT 7
CINCincinnati Reds53%
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
CIN53%ML -110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
PIT47%ML -106

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.0 pts

Model picks CIN at 53.4%, market implies 51.6% for CIN. Chase Burns' 2.00 ERA in 85.7 IP is real; Jones' 5.75 ERA in 20.3 IP is small-sample noise. PNC Park factor 1.055 tilts total over market 8.0, model 9.22 looks reasonable.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +128 betonlineag / U -145 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 7.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%over
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 draftkings / U -130 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-110 / -106CIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total