MLB / mlb / live
CIN 9 / PIT 7CINCincinnati Reds53%
PITPittsburgh Pirates47%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline53%Model 20260622_auto
PITHome starterJared JonesConfirmed
CIN53%ML -110
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
PIT47%ML -106
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.8 pts
Model picks CIN at 53.4%, market implies 51.6% for CIN. Chase Burns' 2.00 ERA in 85.7 IP is real; Jones' 5.75 ERA in 20.3 IP is small-sample noise. PNC Park factor 1.055 tilts total over market 8.0, model 9.22 looks reasonable.
offense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K6.3Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +128 betonlineag / U -145 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 7.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.544%over
O 7.531%over
O 8.520%over
O 9.512%over
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Jared JonesPIT starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +116 draftkings / U -130 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -106CIN / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total