sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

SEA 1 / PIT 11
SEASeattle Mariners58%
PITPittsburgh Pirates42%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SEAAway starterBryan WooConfirmed
Model pickSEA moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
PITHome starterBraxton AshcraftConfirmed
SEA58%ML -105
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability49%Selected moneyline pick
PIT42%ML -115

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.3 pts

Market has PIT at 51.5%, model has SEA at 58.3%—a 6.8pp gap flagged as large disagreement. Both pitchers are competent (Ashcraft 3.18 ERA, Woo 3.94 ERA in ~90 IP each), but PNC Park runs slightly above neutral at 1.055 PF. Model total of 9.34 vs market 8.0 is aggressive; I lean over 8.0 given park context, but model's SEA confidence seems misplaced when market sees a coin flip.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Bryan WooSEA starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 fanatics / U -124 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -152 fanduel / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.566%over
O 5.550%over
O 6.535%over
O 7.522%over
O 8.513%over
O 9.57%over
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-105 / -115SEA / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -118 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total