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MIA 4 / PIT 2
MIAMiami Marlins42%
PITPittsburgh Pirates58%

at PNC Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterMax MeyerConfirmed
Model pickPIT moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterPaul SkenesConfirmed
MIA42%ML +133
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
PIT58%ML -160

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanOver
Model-market gap1.4 pts

Model at 57.5% vs market 59.0% on PIT is close enough. Skenes (2.84 ERA, 10.5 K/9) and Meyer (2.85 ERA, 9.8 K/9) suggest ace matchup, but model projects 9.06 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.56 gap. PNC Park factor 1.055 is hitter-friendly. Model sees offensive signals in MIA's statcast metrics driving the total up; market may be overweighting pitcher names. Lean over on total, lean PIT on side.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Max MeyerMIA starter / away
Projected K5.9Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -112 draftkings / U -105 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%over
O 8.515%over
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Paul SkenesPIT starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -130 fanduel / U +121 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 6.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%over
O 5.559%over
O 6.543%over
O 7.530%over
O 8.519%over
O 9.511%over
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+133 / -160MIA / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total