MLB / mlb / live
MIA 8 / PIT 3MIAMiami Marlins40%
PITPittsburgh Pirates60%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMIAAway starterSandy Alcantara
Model pickPIT moneyline60%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterBraxton Ashcraft
MIA40%ML +121
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability57%Selected moneyline pick
PIT60%ML -145
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.1
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedLines
Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 betmgm / U -120 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -134 betrivers / U +112 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 5.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.568%under
O 5.552%under
O 6.537%under
O 7.524%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+121 / -145MIA / PIT moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+142)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -118 / U -103
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total