MLB / mlb / live
LAD 8 / PIT 9LADLos Angeles Dodgers59%
PITPittsburgh Pirates41%
at PNC Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterShohei Ohtani
Model pickLAD moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
PITHome starterJared Jones
LAD59%ML -210
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
PIT41%ML +175
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.1 pts
Ohtani (0.74 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 61 IP) is legitimately elite; Jones has 9.3 IP across 10 starts—severe small-sample noise. Model at 58.6% vs market 67.2% is market_disagreement_large territory. LAD's .743 OPS and 43-24 record support the away side. Total: model 9.42 vs market 8.5; Ohtani's dominance argues under despite PNC's 1.055 park factor.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-210 / +175LAD / PIT moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+107)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total